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DECEMBER 21,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT WE'LL COUNT IT AS PART OF FRIDAY'S EDITION:

IRRITATING – FROM STUDY FINDS:  KENT, England — A third of natural-born Americans have thought about packing up and living elsewhere — outside the United States — at some point in the future, but it may not be for the reason you think, a new study finds.  Researchers from the University of Kent in the United Kingdom and Tufts University in the U.S. say that the most popular reason (87.4 percent) to live abroad is the simple desire to explore the world. Surprisingly, whether a person identifies as liberal or conservative politically had no correlation to their hopes of moving overseas.  “While one might think that ideological orientation plays a role, at least in this pre-Trump survey, we found out that it did not, at least not directly,” says Dr. Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels, of Kent’s Brussels School of International Studies, in a release.  Hard to interpret this without knowing how Americans felt, say, 20 or 40 years ago.  I haven't seen any research on that.

A WARNING TO US – FROM THE SUN:   CHINA has successfully tested a submarine-launched missile that can unleash a nuclear holocaust anywhere in the United States, sources have revealed.  The game-changing Chinese military flight tested the Julong-3 missile that will be deployed with the next generation of ballistic missile submarines, which are in the pipeline.  Chinese authorities have denied the test but a well- placed source within the American military has confirmed to The Diplomat the launch took place last month.  A US Department of Defence report said: “China’s four operational JIN-class SSBNs represent China’s first credible, seabased nuclear deterrent.”  Geopolitical analysts widely fear a showdown between the United States and China over who controls the South China Sea as well as the independence of Taiwan which could spiral out of control and lead to World War III.  More and more, it is China, not Russia, that appears the greater threat in the future.  Chinese research and development is relentless.  Russia is secondary.

GALLUP GALLOPS BACK – FROM POLITICO:   Gallup, the country’s best-known polling firm, is once again scaling back on the political surveys that have made it so famous.  Only a year after Gallup switched its presidential tracking poll — the ever-present reading of the president’s approval rating — from daily to weekly, the company will announce Friday that it plans to measure President Donald Trump’s job-approval rating only on a monthly basis. It's all part of what the company calls its new, "more global perspective," which de-emphasizes U.S. politics.  It also includes a leadership change, with Mohamed Younis — who has focused more on polling outside the United States in nearly a decade at Gallup — replacing Frank Newport as editor in chief. Newport has served in that role since 1990.  Too bad, but Gallup has increasingly become a voice of the past.  It used to be one of a very few major polling organizations.  Now there are many. 

December 21, 2018       Permalink

BULLETIN:  It's midnight, but we'll still consider this part of Friday's report.  The government has partially shut down.   As Johnny Carson used to ask, notice the difference?

The yappers are still yapping, and it's highly unlikely you'll feel any real change from earlier today, when the government was still functioning, which may be an exaggeration of its actual state.  From Fox: 

Funding for a slew of federal agencies lapsed at midnight after Congress and the White House failed to pass a spending package amid a bruising fight over border wall funding.

The missed deadline means nine of 15 Cabinet-level departments and dozens of agencies will close just as the Christmas break begins. But it does not mean the whole federal government is affected: Only about a quarter of the government is actually shutting down.

Congress had been facing a Friday deadline to fund a portion of the government or risk the partial shutdown. But even though negotiations continue, lawmakers left the Capitol on Friday without a deal to fund the government by midnight’s deadline.

Over the last few weeks, Republicans and Democrats had been at a standstill over the president’s demands for $5 billion to fund the border wall.

COMMENT:  If you sent holiday cards or gifts through the mail, not to worry.  The Post Office, which is independently funded, will continue to operate.

We get bits and pieces of the "negotiations" presumably underway.  Yawn.  If something important happens, we'll let you know.  There are some brave souls hinting that a deal could be reached this weekend, but the president is now so invested in getting funding for his border wall, that he really cannot give much.  He is trying to turn the "crisis" to his advantage by saying he's fighting for America's security, and the Dems are opposing him.  It might work.  Don't underestimate Trump's political instincts.

December 21, 2018       Permalink

THE SHUTDOWN? – AT 1:44 P.M. ET:  Will there be a government shutdown tonight?  The short answer is no because critical parts of the federal government are actually funded into next year.  So, if there's a shutdown, it will only affect certain agencies.  The country will not go to hell in a handbasket.

But the drama is high.  The gulf between Republicans and Democrats appears unbreachable.  From dailywire:   

President Trump on Friday said he's prepared for a government shutdown over the contentious battle to fund his oft-promised wall on the U.S.-Mexico border -- and put the blame squarely on Democrats.

"The Democrats now own the shutdown!" Trump wrote on Twitter Friday morning.

Trump's declaration comes after the House added $5.7 billion for construction of the southern border wall. The Senate is set to take up the proposal at noon today.

Trump had more -- much more -- to say about the wall and the coming Senate vote.

"Shutdown today if Democrats do not vote for Border Security!" he warned.

"Senator Mitch McConnell should fight for the Wall and Border Security as hard as he fought for anything. He will need Democrat votes, but as shown in the House, good things happen. If enough Dems don’t vote, it will be a Democrat Shutdown! House Republicans were great yesterday!" Trump wrote.

The president said McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader, should employ the "nuclear option," a move that makes it so only a majority vote of 51 supporters is necessary.

"Mitch, use the Nuclear Option and get it done! Our Country is counting on you!"

COMMENT:  Presumably there are talks going on, but we really have nothing solid.  We may well have the partial shutdown tonight.

The president is holding firm on his demand for funding for the border wall.  A Senate vote is formally underway on a proposal that would avoid a shutdown tonight, but the vote is stalled pending the return of some senators to Washington.  

Most reporters are saying the odds favor a shutdown.

December 21, 2018       Permalink

JUSTICE GINSBURG'S CONDITION – AT 12:30 P.M. ET:  We should state that we have no ill will toward the justice, and wish her well.  However, her physical condition is a subject of intense public interest for obvious reasons.  So we report this as a news story.  From the New York Post: 

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg underwent a pulmonary lobectomy in Manhattan on Friday and two malignant nodules were removed from her lung, the court announced.

The 85-year-old underwent the procedure at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center after the nodules were discovered in the lower lobe of her left lung, the court announced.

The discovery was made during tests performed at George Washington University Hospital to diagnose and treat rib fractures she sustained in a fall on Nov. 7.

Dr. Valerie Rusch, a thoracic surgeon, said both nodules were found to be malignant after preliminary tests, but there was no evidence of any remaining disease after the surgery.

COMMENT:  A Supreme Court judgeship is a lifetime appointment.  Because people are living longer and working longer, it would probably be wrong to change that rule, or impossible to get support.  But Justice Ginsburg's condition is worrying.  She's had a number of close calls.

Maybe Supreme Court justices could be subject to regular medical evaluations by an impartial panel.  We expect them to be in reasonable physical shape and excellent mental shape.  I think we might gently explore some evaluation procedure, which would not apply to any sitting justice, but would apply in the future.

December 21,  2018     Permalink

DECEMBER 20,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

SOUNDS RIGHT TO ME – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER:   Politicians, lawyers, telemarketers, and journalists sit at the low end of a new survey asking which profession has the highest ethics and honesty.  Nurses are on top of the latest Gallup survey, with 84 percent viewing their profession as one with “very high” ethics.  Last sit members of Congress. Just 8 percent view them as highly ethical and 58 percent view as having “very low” ethics, the biggest percentage in the annual poll taken since 1976.  Below average are journalists...Some 33 percent of those polled said reporters are honest and have high ethics and 34 percent said the industry’s ethics and honesty are low.  Still, at just 33 percent, the public’s view of the ethics of journalists is at a 41-year high.  Gallup said that’s a good thing and attributes that to a backlash by Democrats and independents to President Trump’s criticism of his coverage. I guess journalists should be grateful for small blessings, but journalism should finally face up to its poor image.

STATE OF OUR POLITICS – FROM FOX:   Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, has revealed that the abuse she and her staff suffered over her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court "was unlike anything I've seen in all the years that I've been privileged to serve in the Senate."  "There were protests at my home for six weeks in a row, protests at my home here in Washington, death threats, threats of sexual assault against me and my staff," Collins told Fox News' Martha MacCallum in an exclusive interview that aired Thursday evening on "The Story." "But, what I'll never understand is why anyone would think that I would be intimidated by those tactics and that they would be successful in converting me or causing me to vote against Judge Kavanaugh."   A woman of valor.  We must work for her re-election in 2020.

I'M NOT SURPRISED – FROM CNS:  Unlike Democrat voters, more Republicans are increasing, instead of cutting back, on their holiday gift spending this year, a new national study finds.  In fact, nearly eight times as many Democrats are decreasing (38%) as are increasing (5%) their holiday gift spending, the new Quinnipiac University Poll of 1,147 American voters, conducted Dec. 12-17, 2018, reveals.  Meanwhile, 19% of Republican voters are spending more on holiday gifts and only 15% are spending less. A similar percentage of Independents (17%) will spend more on gifts, but more (23%) are cutting back on their gift budget this holiday season.  Thus, both Republicans and Independents are greater than three times as likely as Democrats to be more generous with their holiday gifts this year (19%-5% and 17%-5%, respectively).  Scrooge is a Dem.

December 20, 2018       Permalink

BULLETIN:  MATTIS OUT – AT 8:16 P.M. ET:  The secretary of defense has resigned, and it is clear he wasn't a happy camper.  This is more trouble for the president in a week filled with trouble, and will raise more questions about his judgment.  From AP:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Defense Secretary Jim Mattis resigned Thursday after clashing with President Donald Trump over the abrupt withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria and after two years of deep disagreements over America’s role in the world.

Mattis, perhaps the most respected foreign policy official in Trump’s administration, will leave by the end of February after two tumultuous years struggling to soften and moderate the president’s hardline and sometimes sharply changing policies.

He told Trump in a letter that he was leaving because “you have a right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours.”

His departure was immediately lamented by foreign policy hands and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, who viewed the retired Marine general as a sober voice of experience in the ear of a president who had never held political office or served in the military. Even Trump allies expressed fear over Mattis’ decision to quit, believing him to be an important moderating force on the president.

“Just read Gen. Mattis resignation letter ,” tweeted Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. “It makes it abundantly clear that we are headed toward a series of grave policy errors which will endanger our nation, damage our alliances and empower our adversaries.”

COMMENT:  The timing, coming hours after the Syria decision was announced, will be seen as honorable – an honest disagreement over policy by a patriot.

The fact that Marco Rubio could make the statement he did suggests that Republicans in the Senate now feel free to criticize the president on foreign policy.  Does it also suggest a primary challenge to Trump in 2020?

This is high political drama.  First question:  Will Trump reverse his Syria decision?

December 20, 2018       Permalink

KEANE NOT KEEN ON SYRIA MOVE – AT 1:43 P.M. ET:  Retired Army General Jack Keane, normally a supporter of the president's policies, makes clear his dissent over Syria.  We're hearing a lot of this today.  From Mediaite:   

Fox News senior strategic analyst General Jack Keane made it very clear tonight that while he has agreed with many of President Donald Trump‘s foreign policy decisions, he strongly disagrees with his announcement today that the U.S. is withdrawing from Syria.

Keane spoke with Trish Regan on Fox Business Network tonight and bluntly stated, “This I believe is a serious strategic mistake, it’s going to have dire consequences. I think it’s a decision the President will come to regret, to be frank about it.”

“When we prematurely withdraw forces,” he argued, “because we’re frustrated of it or tired of the time it took––Vietnam, Iraq, and now Syria––the consequences are usually unfavorable and quite dire.”

Keane laid out the consequence of this move, saying that “Russia and our adversaries will look at this not as a victory by the United States, they will look at this as weakness.”

And Lindsey Graham, who has strong national-security cred in the Senate, doubled down on his initial criticism of the move.  From Mediaite: 

On Wednesday evening, Sen. Lindsey Graham spoke on the Senate floor about President Donald Trump‘s Twitter-announced decision to pull troops out of Syria, calling it “disastrous.”

“So the decision today by the president — and I think it was his alone — I think is disastrous to our own national security,” Graham began.

The Trump-supporting Republican senator continued on noting those we hate are celebrating this decision: “The Russians are up to no good all over the world, and their statement says everything you need to know about this decision. The only reason they’re not dancing in Tehran and ISIS camps is they just don’t believe in dancing. They are as happy as they will ever be, and they are not into being happy.”

He added: “So to the president, you win the election, you beat me and many others. You have the right to make this decision, but the Congress has the duty to hold you accountable.”

Then, turning to the fact Trump is declaring the war against ISIS won, Graham called it “fake news.”

“I give the president all the credit in the world for changing our policies regarding the fight against ISIS, but I will not buy into the narrative that they have been defeated in Syria, Iraq, and I just got back from Afghanistan, haven’t slept in two days,” Graham said on the Senate floor.

COMMENT:  That is strong tonic from two allies.  The president's enemies are no doubt lying back and enjoying the spectacle. 

France today bluntly stated that ISIS is not defeated, contradicting the president.  Our Kurdish allies, sold out again, said the same thing.  The Israelis, clearly upset over a decision that can result in Iranian troops on their border, are playing it cool, not wanting to upset their good relationship with Trump.

The president should immediately meet with his critics.  The decision can be reversed, or partially reversed.  But the president, who is not loved by his own party, is in deep trouble on this surprise decision.

December 20, 2018       Permalink

THE PRESIDENT'S MESS – AT 12:51 P.M. ET:  This has been a bad week for the president, possibly the worst of his presidency.  For the first time, he flashed confusion and weakness.  He appeared to cave, quite spectacularly, on his demand for funding the border wall.

Then, he announced, against the advice of his advisers, that we were pulling all troops out of Syria, appearing to echo the great blunder made by Field Marshal Obama in pulling all troops out of Iraq.  The reaction, especially within his own party, has been surprise and disillusionment.  Is Barack back?  Does he now have orange hair?

There is apparently some understanding in the White House over how this all went down.  Mr. Trump appears this morning to have found at least a portion of his spine, and is starting the pushback.  From the Washington Times: 

President Trump lashed out at Congress Thursday, blasting lawmakers for failing to fund his border wall demands — and throwing into doubt the chances of passing a bill to fund the government by Friday’s deadline.

Mr. Trump suggested he was betrayed by “leadership” on Capitol Hill who had promised after a another spending bill earlier this year he would get border security money.

“It didn’t happen! We foolishly fight for border security for other countries - but not for our beloved U.S.A. Not good!” the president said via Twitter.

Blaming Congressional allies is not a good idea.  Once again, Mr. Trump is his own worst enemy.  He makes enemies where friends are required.

The White House followed up with a statement saying the president is not inclined to sign the stopgap spending bill without money for border barriers, and he’s going to meet with House Republicans to talk strategy.

“The president is continuing to weigh his options,” said press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Mr. Trump, in his tweet, didn’t say which party’s “leadership” he felt betrayed him, but the GOP has been in control of Congress for the last two years, and has struggled to deliver on his demands for cash for a wall.

The president’s inconsistencies haven’t helped.

Earlier this week the White House said it could sign a spending bill without additional money for the border fence, because it was going to scrounge the cash from other agencies’ budgets.

But after fierce criticism from conservative commentators and lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the president appears to have changed that stance.

The spending bill passed the Senate by voice vote late Wednesday, suggesting lawmakers there are eager to avoid a shutdown showdown. But House conservatives are more eager to foment a blowup.

COMMENT:  These will be a few tense days of negotiating.  We wish the president well in his righteous fight, but being prepared with a strategy would have been better.

Now he's got to figure out the Syria mess.

December 20,  2018     Permalink